課題研究了西北內陸三省兩區(qū)(陜西省、甘肅省、青海省、寧夏回族自治區(qū)、新疆維吾爾自治區(qū))"十三五"期間的鐵路、公路建設規(guī)劃，計算了規(guī)劃方案的投資成本，定量分析了基礎設施建設對經濟增長和區(qū)域發(fā)展的拉動作用。
"一帶一路"倡議是中國在世界經濟復蘇乏力、經濟增長亟須新的動力的背景下提出的新型多邊合作機制，中國期待與沿線國家建立"命運共同體"和"利益共同體"，這將有助于打造新型的國際關系格局，順應區(qū)域經濟一體化的發(fā)展趨勢，有利于全球發(fā)展的再平衡和可持續(xù)。就國內而言，"一帶一路"基礎設施的建設能夠直接提高中國西部地區(qū)的開放廣度，促使西北內陸地區(qū)向西、向南開放，從而促進我國多方位開放新格局的形成，并有效協(xié)調我國的區(qū)域經濟發(fā)展。基于此背景，本課題聚焦"絲綢之路經濟帶交通基礎設施規(guī)劃、投資及其經濟效應研究"，并獲得了中央高校基本業(yè)務經費的支持。課題研究了西北內陸三省兩區(qū)(陜西省、甘肅省、青海省、寧夏回族自治區(qū)、新疆維吾爾自治區(qū))"十三五"期間的鐵路、公路建設規(guī)劃，計算了規(guī)劃方案的投資成本，定量分析了基礎設施建設對經濟增長和區(qū)域發(fā)展的拉動作用。
第1章引言 ·····································································1
1.1 "現(xiàn)代絲綢之路"交通基礎設施建設問題的緣由 ···········2
1.2 研究交通基礎設施建設的意義 ···········································6
1.2.1 理論意義 ·············································································6
1.2.2 現(xiàn)實意義 ·············································································8
1.3 篇章安排 ···············································································9
1.3.1 研究思路 ·············································································9
1.3.2 篇章結構 ···········································································10
第2章"絲綢之路"新舊解讀······································13
2.1 引言 ·····················································································14
2.2 起源：古代絲綢之路 ·························································14
2.3 發(fā)展：現(xiàn)代絲綢之路 ·························································16
2.4 "現(xiàn)代絲綢之路"的提出背景 ·········································19
2.5 "現(xiàn)代絲綢之路"的本質 ·················································23
2.6 "現(xiàn)代絲綢之路"的重要基礎：交通基礎設施 ·············27
2.7 本章小結 ·············································································31
第3章我國西北內陸三省兩區(qū)交通基礎設施現(xiàn)狀分析
與綜合評價 ························································33
3.1 引言 ·····················································································34
3.2 三省兩區(qū)交通基礎設施現(xiàn)狀 ·············································34
3.1.1 陜西··················································································· 37
3.1.2 甘肅··················································································· 41
3.1.3 青海··················································································· 46
3.1.4 寧夏··················································································· 50
3.1.5 新疆··················································································· 54
3.3 三省兩區(qū)現(xiàn)有交通基礎設施評價 ·····································58
3.4 本章小結 ·············································································59
第4章我國西北內陸三省兩區(qū)交通基礎設施規(guī)劃目標··· 61
4.1 引言 ·····················································································62
4.2 三省兩區(qū)的規(guī)劃目標 ·························································63
4.2.1 陜西··················································································· 64
4.2.2 甘肅··················································································· 65
4.2.3 青海··················································································· 67
4.2.4 寧夏··················································································· 69
4.2.5 新疆··················································································· 71
4.3 本章小結 ·············································································74
第5章我國西北內陸三省兩區(qū)交通基礎設施規(guī)劃········· 77
5.1 引言 ·····················································································78
5.2 影響交通基礎設施規(guī)劃的因素分析 ·································78
5.2.1 社會經濟發(fā)展水平··························································· 79
5.2.2 交通運輸需求··································································· 79
5.2.3 自然條件··········································································· 80
5.2.4 技術條件··········································································· 81
5.2.5 建設資金及發(fā)展政策······················································· 81
5.2.6 環(huán)保問題·········································································· 82
5.2.7 現(xiàn)有交通基礎設施··························································· 82
5.3 交通基礎設施規(guī)劃的方法及工具 ·····································83
5.3.1 交通基礎設施規(guī)劃的基本步驟······································· 83
5.3.2 基于交通基礎設施規(guī)劃流程的具體方法和工具簡介··· 85
5.4 交通規(guī)劃方案評價 ·····························································93
5.5 三省兩區(qū)現(xiàn)有公路與鐵路規(guī)劃方案及優(yōu)化 ·····················95
5.5.1 三省兩區(qū)現(xiàn)有"十三五"交通規(guī)劃方案······················· 95
5.5.2 三省兩區(qū)鐵路及公路規(guī)劃方案優(yōu)化······························· 98
5.6 本章小結 ···········································································117
第6章交通基礎設施投資成本測算······························119
6.1 引言 ···················································································120
6.2 交通基礎設施成本測算方法及適用性分析 ···················121
6.2.1 工程項目投資成本測算的基本內容····························· 121
6.2.2 工程項目投資成本估算的基本方法····························· 122
6.3 三省兩區(qū)整體規(guī)劃方案投資成本測算 ···························138
6.3.1 鐵路投資成本估算························································· 139
6.3.2 公路投資成本估算························································· 145
6.4 本章小結 ···········································································150
第7章交通基礎設施投資的經濟效應研究·················· 153
7.1 引言 ···················································································154
7.1.1 推動國家經濟的增長····················································· 154
7.1.2 促進我國區(qū)域間協(xié)調發(fā)展············································· 155
7.1.3 加強國際間合作交流····················································· 156
7.2 相關的基礎理論 ·······························································157
7.2.1 古典主義········································································· 157
7.2.2 凱恩斯主義····································································· 158
7.2.3 發(fā)展經濟學····································································· 158
7.2.4 新經濟增長理論····························································· 159
7.2.5 新經濟地理學································································· 160
7.3
交通基礎設施與經濟增長的互動機制···························160
7.4
交通基礎設施投資的經濟效應研究·······························162
7.4.1 交通基礎設施與經濟增長的關系································· 163
7.4.2 交通基礎設施的空間溢出效應····································· 177
7.4.3 交通基礎設施對產業(yè)聚集的影響································· 186
7.4.4 交通基礎設施對區(qū)域貿易的影響································· 194
7.4.5 交通基礎設施建設對產業(yè)升級的影響························· 202
7.5
"十三五"期間交通基礎設施建設對西北內陸三省兩區(qū)
的經濟效應分析································································206
7.6
本章小結···········································································211
第8章結論與展望······················································213
8.1
研究結論···········································································214
8.2
不足與展望·······································································219
附錄A 新疆維吾爾自治區(qū)內交通點重要度·················· 222
附錄B 寧夏回族自治區(qū)內交通點重要度····················· 230
附錄C 青海省內交通點重要度··································· 237
附錄
D
甘肅省內交通點重要度··································· 243
附錄
E
三省兩區(qū)內交通點重要度綜合分析················· 250
附錄
F
2014—2016年國家發(fā)改委有關鐵路投資項目的
審批文件·························································260
參考文獻······································································265
