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第1章洪水風(fēng)險管理|Flood risk management

Chapter 1Flood risk management

A flood is a very simple natural phenomenon that occurs when a body of water rises to overflow land that is not normally submerged (Ward,1978) At the same time,a flood is a very complex phenomenon that connects the natural environment,people,and the social systems of their organization Flooding causes loss of human life It damages infrastructure such as roads,bridges,and buildings,and hurts agricultural productivity because of lost crops and soil erosion Flood disaster relief often requires enormous funding Connectivity increases risksAs more links are present among the elements of natural,social,and technological systems,these systems develop unexpected patterns of connections that make breakdown more likelyWe are witnessing many catastrophic flood disasters European floods in 2002 caused more than 7 billion damage Hurricane Katrina caused flooding in 2005 that was the costliest natural disaster,as well as one of the five deadliest,in the history of the USA At least 1,836 people lost their lives in the actual hurricane and in the subsequent floods; total property damage was estimated at US$81 billion In June of 2006,northeastern Bangladesh disappeared under monsoon floods as rains drenched the region The floods stretched across hundreds of kilometers of what had been dry land a month earlier and inundated two thirds of the territory of the country Typhoon Morakot of 2009 was the deadliest typhoon to impact Taiwan in recorded history It created catastrophic damage in Taiwan,leaving 461 people dead and 192 others missing,and roughly US$33 billion in damage The storm produced huge amounts of rainfall,peaking at 2,777 mm (1093 in) The extreme amount of rain triggered enormous mudslides and severe flooding throughout southern Taiwan One mudslide buried the entire town of Xiaolin,killing an estimated 500 people In the wake of the flood,Taiwans President Ma Yingjeou faced extreme criticism for the slow response to the disaster,having initially deployed only roughly 2,100 soldiers to the affected regions Later additions of troops increased the number of soldiers to 46,000 The 2010 China floods began in early May The total death toll as of August 5 was 2,507 More than 305 million people in 28 provinces,municipalities,and regions were affected,while at least 12 million people had been evacuated because of the risk of flooding and landslides by early August As I am writing these words,Pakistans deadliest floods in decades have killed more than 1,500 people and overwhelmed government efforts to provide aid The floods death toll may rise to 3,000 Approximately 20 million people had been affected by floods by early August Regions downstream in the Indus River valley,where most of Pakistans 162 million people live,are bracing for floods that may damage crops

第1章洪水風(fēng)險管理

洪水是一種非常簡單的自然現(xiàn)象。當(dāng)洪水發(fā)生時，水體水位升高淹沒平常不受淹的陸地(Ward,1978)。同時，洪水也是一種非常復(fù)雜的現(xiàn)象，與自然環(huán)境、人類及其社會組織體系有密不可分的關(guān)系。洪水泛濫會導(dǎo)致人員傷亡，也會毀壞基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施，例如道路、橋梁和建筑物等，并因土壤侵蝕、農(nóng)作物受損而破壞農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)力。減輕洪災(zāi)往往需要巨大的投入。現(xiàn)代社會多個系統(tǒng)之間的連通性使得洪水風(fēng)險大大增加。隨著自然、社會和科技系統(tǒng)中各單元之間的聯(lián)系越來越多，這些系統(tǒng)間連接的故障就更可能呈現(xiàn)突發(fā)的模式。我們見證過很多大洪災(zāi)： 2002年歐洲大洪水造成70億歐元的損失。2005年卡特里娜颶風(fēng)引發(fā)的洪災(zāi)造成了最為嚴(yán)重的經(jīng)濟(jì)損失，這場災(zāi)難也是美國歷史上傷亡最重的五大災(zāi)難之一。在颶風(fēng)災(zāi)害和隨后的洪災(zāi)中，至少有1836人死亡，總資產(chǎn)損失估計達(dá)到810億美元。2006年6月，因?yàn)槌掷m(xù)的降雨，孟加拉國東北部變成了一片澤國。洪水淹沒的區(qū)域縱深達(dá)幾百公里，將一個月前還安然無恙的陸地全部淹沒。此次洪災(zāi)使得孟加拉國2/3的領(lǐng)土被淹。2009年的莫拉克臺風(fēng)是中國臺灣有記錄以來最致命的一場臺風(fēng)，帶來了災(zāi)難性的破壞，共有461人死亡，192人失蹤，經(jīng)濟(jì)損失達(dá)33億美元。風(fēng)暴使得降雨量激增，較大降雨量達(dá)2777 mm(1093 in)。極端降雨引發(fā)了臺灣南部嚴(yán)重的泥石流和洪水災(zāi)害，其中，小林村整個村子都被泥石流掩埋，估計死亡500人。洪水暴發(fā)后，臺灣當(dāng)局領(lǐng)導(dǎo)也因?qū)?zāi)害救援反應(yīng)遲緩而飽受批評。災(zāi)害發(fā)生后，政府僅僅出動2100名士兵前往災(zāi)區(qū)救援，難以滿足救災(zāi)需求，所以又增援士兵46000人。2010年中國大陸的洪水始于5月，至8月5日死亡人數(shù)已達(dá)2507人，28個省、自治區(qū)和直轄市受災(zāi)，受影響人口達(dá)305億人。截至8月初，中國至少有1200萬人因洪水和滑坡風(fēng)險而被迫撤離。就在我寫這本書的時候(2010年，譯者注)，巴基斯坦發(fā)生了近幾十年來最嚴(yán)重的洪災(zāi)，死亡人口超過1500人，政府的救災(zāi)努力收效甚微。洪災(zāi)導(dǎo)致的死亡人口總數(shù)可能將達(dá)到3000人，截至2010年8月初，受洪災(zāi)影響的人口約為2000萬人。Indus河下游地區(qū)有162億巴基斯坦人及大片的農(nóng)田隨時可能被洪水淹沒。